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Rostov U20 vs Orenburg U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Rostov U20
Rostov U20
FT
2 – 1
Orenburg U20
Orenburg U20
7/13/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 1Stadion Olimp 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rostov U2045%
×Draw24%
Orenburg U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostov U20
1.64
Orenburg U20
1.30

Rostov U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rostov U20
1.45
Orenburg U20
0.91

allows per match

Rostov U20
1.70
Orenburg U20
1.82

finishing

Rostov U20+0.00on par
Orenburg U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov U20 ↓

Orenburg U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rostov U20 or draw
70%
Rostov U20 or Orenburg U20
76%
Draw or Orenburg U20
55%

Winning margin

Rostov U20 wins by 2+
23%
Orenburg U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rostov U20 1+ goals
81%
Rostov U20 2+ goals
49%
Rostov U20 3+ goals
23%
Orenburg U20 1+ goals
73%
Orenburg U20 2+ goals
37%
Orenburg U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rostov U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Orenburg U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov U20 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Orenburg U20 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov U20 attack 1.45 + Orenburg U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Orenburg U20 attack 0.91 + Rostov U20 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rostov U20 scores more
45%
level
24%
Orenburg U20 scores more
30%

Rostov U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rostov U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Rostov U20 2–1 Orenburg U20

Rostov U20 beat Orenburg U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Olimp 2 in Rostov-na-Donu.