Rostov U19 3–1 UOR №5 U20: Result & Stats

Rostov U19

FT

3 – 1

UOR №5 U20

9/24/2021

Youth Championship · Round 10Stadion Olimp 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Rostov U1962%

×Draw19%

UOR №5 U2019%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rostov U19Expected goals in this matchUOR №5 U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.23

Rostov U19

2.33

UOR №5 U20

1.23

Rostov U19 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 65 away

2.04

creates per match

1.40

1.07

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Rostov U19

2.04

UOR №5 U20

1.40

allows per match

Rostov U19

1.07

UOR №5 U20

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rostov U19+0.00on par

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov U19 ↓

UOR №5 U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Rostov U19 or draw

81%

Rostov U19 or UOR №5 U20

81%

Draw or UOR №5 U20

38%

Winning margin

Rostov U19 wins by 2+

39%

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rostov U19 1+ goals

90%

Rostov U19 2+ goals

67%

Rostov U19 3+ goals

41%

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals

71%

UOR №5 U20 2+ goals

35%

UOR №5 U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rostov U19 (draw refunded)

76%

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov U19 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

UOR №5 U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.63 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov U19 attack 2.04 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.33

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.40 + Rostov U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rostov U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

UOR №5 U20 scores more

19%

Rostov U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rostov U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff