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Rostov U19 vs Krylya Sovetov U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Rostov U19
Rostov U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krylya Sovetov U19
Krylya Sovetov U19
3/28/2025Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 3Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rostov U1955%
×Draw22%
Krylya Sovetov U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostov U19
1.91
Krylya Sovetov U19
1.16

Rostov U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 68 away

creates per match

Rostov U19
2.04
Krylya Sovetov U19
1.24

allows per match

Rostov U19
1.07
Krylya Sovetov U19
1.78

finishing

Rostov U19+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov U19 ↓

Krylya Sovetov U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rostov U19 or draw
77%
Rostov U19 or Krylya Sovetov U19
78%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov U19
45%

Winning margin

Rostov U19 wins by 2+
32%
Krylya Sovetov U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rostov U19 1+ goals
85%
Rostov U19 2+ goals
57%
Rostov U19 3+ goals
30%
Krylya Sovetov U19 1+ goals
69%
Krylya Sovetov U19 2+ goals
32%
Krylya Sovetov U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rostov U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Krylya Sovetov U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov U19 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

Krylya Sovetov U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov U19 attack 2.04 + Krylya Sovetov U19 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.91

Krylya Sovetov U19 attack 1.24 + Rostov U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rostov U19 scores more
55%
level
22%
Krylya Sovetov U19 scores more
23%

Rostov U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rostov U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Rostov U19 2–0 Krylya Sovetov U19

Rostov U19 beat Krylya Sovetov U19 2-0 in Youth Championship on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu in Rostov-na-Donu.