Rostov U19 5–2 FShM U19: Result & Stats

Rostov U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

FShM U19

9/15/2023

Youth Championship · Round 10Stadion Olimp 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rostov U1966%

×Draw20%

FShM U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rostov U19Expected goals in this matchFShM U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.87

Rostov U19

2.13

FShM U19

0.87

Rostov U19 creates 145% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 9 away

2.04

creates per match

0.67

1.07

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Rostov U19

2.04

FShM U19

0.67

allows per match

Rostov U19

1.07

FShM U19

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rostov U19+0.00on par

FShM U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov U19 ↓

FShM U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rostov U19 or draw

86%

Rostov U19 or FShM U19

80%

Draw or FShM U19

34%

Winning margin

Rostov U19 wins by 2+

42%

FShM U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Rostov U19 1+ goals

88%

Rostov U19 2+ goals

63%

Rostov U19 3+ goals

35%

FShM U19 1+ goals

58%

FShM U19 2+ goals

22%

FShM U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rostov U19 (draw refunded)

82%

FShM U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov U19 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

FShM U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov U19 attack 2.04 + FShM U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.13

FShM U19 attack 0.67 + Rostov U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rostov U19 scores more

66%

level

20%

FShM U19 scores more

14%

Rostov U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rostov U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff