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Rostov II vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Rostov II
Rostov II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
4/13/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Olimp 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rostov II42%
×Draw28%
Kuban Kholding31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostov II
1.30
Kuban Kholding
1.08

Rostov II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rostov II
1.63
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Rostov II
0.80
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Rostov II+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov II ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rostov II or draw
69%
Rostov II or Kuban Kholding
72%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
58%

Winning margin

Rostov II wins by 2+
19%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rostov II 1+ goals
73%
Rostov II 2+ goals
37%
Rostov II 3+ goals
14%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
66%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
29%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rostov II (draw refunded)
57%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov II attack 1.63 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.30

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Rostov II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rostov II scores more
42%
level
28%
Kuban Kholding scores more
31%

Rostov II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rostov II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Rostov II 1–1 Kuban Kholding

Rostov II and Kuban Kholding drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Olimp 2 in Rostov-na-Donu.