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Rostocker FC vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Rostocker FC
Rostocker FC
CANC
12:00
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
5/9/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30Sportplatz am Damerower Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rostocker FC27%
×Draw21%
Torgelower SV Greif51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostocker FC
1.46
Torgelower SV Greif
2.06

Torgelower SV Greif creates 41% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 18 away

creates per match

Rostocker FC
1.81
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

Rostocker FC
2.22
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

Rostocker FC+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostocker FC ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rostocker FC or draw
49%
Rostocker FC or Torgelower SV Greif
79%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
73%

Winning margin

Rostocker FC wins by 2+
12%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Rostocker FC 1+ goals
77%
Rostocker FC 2+ goals
43%
Rostocker FC 3+ goals
18%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
87%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
61%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)
35%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostocker FC at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.22 · 67 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostocker FC attack 1.81 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + Rostocker FC defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rostocker FC scores more
27%
level
21%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
51%

Torgelower SV Greif at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rostocker FC face Torgelower SV Greif (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with Rostocker FC hosting Torgelower SV Greif. Match starts May 9, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rostocker FC host Torgelower SV Greif at Sportplatz am Damerower Weg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.