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Rostocker FC vs Neustrelitz — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Rostocker FC
Rostocker FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
8/19/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 3Sportplatz am Damerower Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Rostocker FC37%
×Draw22%
Neustrelitz41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostocker FC
1.73
Neustrelitz
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 81 away

creates per match

Rostocker FC
1.81
Neustrelitz
1.47

allows per match

Rostocker FC
2.22
Neustrelitz
1.64

finishing

Rostocker FC+0.00on par
Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostocker FC ↓

Neustrelitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rostocker FC or draw
59%
Rostocker FC or Neustrelitz
78%
Draw or Neustrelitz
63%

Winning margin

Rostocker FC wins by 2+
19%
Neustrelitz wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Rostocker FC 1+ goals
82%
Rostocker FC 2+ goals
52%
Rostocker FC 3+ goals
25%
Neustrelitz 1+ goals
84%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
55%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)
47%
Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostocker FC at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.22 · 67 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostocker FC attack 1.81 + Neustrelitz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Neustrelitz attack 1.47 + Rostocker FC defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rostocker FC scores more
37%
level
22%
Neustrelitz scores more
41%

Neustrelitz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Neustrelitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Rostocker FC 2–1 Neustrelitz

Rostocker FC beat Neustrelitz 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Damerower Weg in Rostock.