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Rostocker FC vs Makkabi — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Rostocker FC
Rostocker FC
FT
4 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Makkabi
Makkabi
3/2/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 19RFC Platz III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Rostocker FC34%
×Draw22%
Makkabi44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostocker FC
1.67
Makkabi
1.94

Makkabi creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rostocker FC
1.81
Makkabi
1.65

allows per match

Rostocker FC
2.22
Makkabi
1.52

finishing

Rostocker FC+0.00on par
Makkabi+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostocker FC ↓

Makkabi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rostocker FC or draw
56%
Rostocker FC or Makkabi
78%
Draw or Makkabi
66%

Winning margin

Rostocker FC wins by 2+
17%
Makkabi wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Rostocker FC 1+ goals
81%
Rostocker FC 2+ goals
50%
Rostocker FC 3+ goals
23%
Makkabi 1+ goals
86%
Makkabi 2+ goals
58%
Makkabi 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)
43%
Makkabi (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostocker FC at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.22 · 67 matches

Makkabi away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostocker FC attack 1.81 + Makkabi defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.67

Makkabi attack 1.65 + Rostocker FC defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rostocker FC scores more
34%
level
22%
Makkabi scores more
44%

Makkabi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Makkabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Rostocker FC 4–5 Makkabi

Makkabi beat Rostocker FC 5-4 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at RFC Platz III in Rostock.