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Rostocker FC vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Rostocker FC
Rostocker FC
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
2/19/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 21Sportplatz am Damerower Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rostocker FC38%
×Draw22%
CFC Hertha40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostocker FC
1.71
CFC Hertha
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 44 away

creates per match

Rostocker FC
1.81
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Rostocker FC
2.22
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Rostocker FC+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostocker FC ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rostocker FC or draw
60%
Rostocker FC or CFC Hertha
78%
Draw or CFC Hertha
62%

Winning margin

Rostocker FC wins by 2+
19%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rostocker FC 1+ goals
82%
Rostocker FC 2+ goals
51%
Rostocker FC 3+ goals
24%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
83%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
52%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)
49%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostocker FC at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.22 · 67 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostocker FC attack 1.81 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.71

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Rostocker FC defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rostocker FC scores more
38%
level
22%
CFC Hertha scores more
40%

CFC Hertha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CFC Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rostocker FC vs CFC Hertha

Rostocker FC beat CFC Hertha 5-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Damerower Weg in Rostock.