Ross County 0–0 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Ross County

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stirling Albion

2/12/2011

League #180 · Round 9Victoria Park, Dingwall (Dingwall)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ross County61%

×Draw24%

Stirling Albion15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ross CountyExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.67

Ross County

1.67

Stirling Albion

0.67

Ross County creates 149% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Ross County

1.00

Stirling Albion

0.33

allows per match

Ross County

1.00

Stirling Albion

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ross County+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ross County ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ross County or draw

85%

Ross County or Stirling Albion

76%

Draw or Stirling Albion

39%

Winning margin

Ross County wins by 2+

34%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ross County 1+ goals

81%

Ross County 2+ goals

50%

Ross County 3+ goals

23%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

49%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

15%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ross County (draw refunded)

81%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ross County at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ross County attack 1.00 + Stirling Albion defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Stirling Albion attack 0.33 + Ross County defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ross County scores more

61%

level

24%

Stirling Albion scores more

15%

Ross County at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ross County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff