Ross County 1–0 ST Mirren: Result & Stats

Ross County

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ST Mirren

11/28/2023

Premiership · 1st Phase - 9Global Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Ross County41%

×Draw25%

ST Mirren34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ross CountyExpected goals in this matchST Mirren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.31

Ross County

1.48

ST Mirren

1.31

Ross County creates 13% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 135 away

1.24

creates per match

1.04

1.57

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Ross County

1.24

ST Mirren

1.04

allows per match

Ross County

1.57

ST Mirren

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ross County+0.00on par

ST Mirren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ross County ↓

ST Mirren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ross County or draw

66%

Ross County or ST Mirren

75%

Draw or ST Mirren

59%

Winning margin

Ross County wins by 2+

20%

ST Mirren wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ross County 1+ goals

77%

Ross County 2+ goals

43%

Ross County 3+ goals

19%

ST Mirren 1+ goals

73%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

38%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ross County (draw refunded)

55%

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ross County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.57 · 95 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.73 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ross County attack 1.24 + ST Mirren defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

ST Mirren attack 1.04 + Ross County defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ross County scores more

41%

level

25%

ST Mirren scores more

34%

Ross County at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ross County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff