Ross County 2–1 Raith Rovers: Result & Stats

Ross County

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Raith Rovers

7/20/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 4Global Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ross County63%

×Draw19%

Raith Rovers18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ross CountyExpected goals in this matchRaith Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.14

Ross County

2.29

Raith Rovers

1.14

Ross County creates 101% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

2.59

creates per match

1.27

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ross County

2.59

Raith Rovers

1.27

allows per match

Ross County

1.00

Raith Rovers

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ross County+0.00on par

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ross County ↓

Raith Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ross County or draw

82%

Ross County or Raith Rovers

81%

Draw or Raith Rovers

37%

Winning margin

Ross County wins by 2+

40%

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ross County 1+ goals

90%

Ross County 2+ goals

66%

Ross County 3+ goals

40%

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

68%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

32%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ross County (draw refunded)

78%

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ross County at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ross County attack 2.59 + Raith Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Raith Rovers attack 1.27 + Ross County defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ross County scores more

63%

level

19%

Raith Rovers scores more

18%

Ross County at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ross County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff