Ross County 2–1 Hibernian: Result & Stats

Ross County

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hibernian

J. White 88'

S. Murray 21'

M. Maolida 15'

5/4/2024

Premiership · Relegation Round - 2Global Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Ross County36%

×Draw26%

Hibernian39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ross CountyExpected goals in this matchHibernian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.39

Ross County

1.32

Hibernian

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 136 away

1.24

creates per match

1.21

1.57

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Ross County

1.24

Hibernian

1.21

allows per match

Ross County

1.57

Hibernian

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ross County+0.00on par

Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ross County ↓

Hibernian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ross County or draw

61%

Ross County or Hibernian

74%

Draw or Hibernian

64%

Winning margin

Ross County wins by 2+

16%

Hibernian wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ross County 1+ goals

73%

Ross County 2+ goals

38%

Ross County 3+ goals

15%

Hibernian 1+ goals

75%

Hibernian 2+ goals

40%

Hibernian 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ross County (draw refunded)

48%

Hibernian (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ross County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.57 · 95 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.41 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ross County attack 1.24 + Hibernian defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Hibernian attack 1.21 + Ross County defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ross County scores more

36%

level

26%

Hibernian scores more

39%

Hibernian at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

S. Murray

Ross County · F

7.9

Match Events

15'

M. Maolida

21'

S. Murray

46'

A. Le Fondre← D. Vente

51'

69'

76'

77'

81'

J. Campbell← M. Boyle

88'

J. White↳ G. Harmon

90+1'

Jair Tavares← E. Marcondes

90+1'

L. Stevenson← N. Moriah-Welsh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RossHibernian

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots20

3Corners5

10Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots20

4On Target5

5Off Target7

3Blocked8

9Inside Box14

3Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

313Total Passes443

230Accurate Passes355

73%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0