Rospak 0–0 Soccer Intellectuals: Result & Stats

Rospak

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Soccer Intellectuals

11/9/2025

Division One League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rospak60%

×Draw25%

Soccer Intellectuals14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RospakExpected goals in this matchSoccer Intellectuals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.60

Rospak

1.54

Soccer Intellectuals

0.60

Rospak creates 157% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

0.53

0.67

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Rospak

1.60

Soccer Intellectuals

0.53

allows per match

Rospak

0.67

Soccer Intellectuals

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rospak+0.00on par

Soccer Intellectuals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rospak ↓

Soccer Intellectuals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rospak or draw

86%

Rospak or Soccer Intellectuals

75%

Draw or Soccer Intellectuals

40%

Winning margin

Rospak wins by 2+

32%

Soccer Intellectuals wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Rospak 1+ goals

79%

Rospak 2+ goals

45%

Rospak 3+ goals

20%

Soccer Intellectuals 1+ goals

45%

Soccer Intellectuals 2+ goals

12%

Soccer Intellectuals 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Rospak (draw refunded)

81%

Soccer Intellectuals (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rospak at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Soccer Intellectuals away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rospak attack 1.60 + Soccer Intellectuals defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Soccer Intellectuals attack 0.53 + Rospak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rospak scores more

60%

level

25%

Soccer Intellectuals scores more

14%

Rospak at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rospak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff