Rospak 2–0 Sefwi All Stars: Result & Stats

Rospak

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sefwi All Stars

1/18/2026

Division One League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rospak62%

×Draw25%

Sefwi All Stars13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RospakExpected goals in this matchSefwi All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.54

Rospak

1.56

Sefwi All Stars

0.54

Rospak creates 189% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

0.40

0.67

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Rospak

1.60

Sefwi All Stars

0.40

allows per match

Rospak

0.67

Sefwi All Stars

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rospak+0.00on par

Sefwi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rospak ↓

Sefwi All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Rospak or draw

87%

Rospak or Sefwi All Stars

75%

Draw or Sefwi All Stars

38%

Winning margin

Rospak wins by 2+

34%

Sefwi All Stars wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Rospak 1+ goals

79%

Rospak 2+ goals

46%

Rospak 3+ goals

21%

Sefwi All Stars 1+ goals

42%

Sefwi All Stars 2+ goals

10%

Sefwi All Stars 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Rospak (draw refunded)

83%

Sefwi All Stars (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rospak at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Sefwi All Stars away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rospak attack 1.60 + Sefwi All Stars defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sefwi All Stars attack 0.40 + Rospak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rospak scores more

62%

level

25%

Sefwi All Stars scores more

13%

Rospak at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rospak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff