Rospak 2–0 Police National: Result & Stats

Rospak

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Police National

1/5/2026

Division One League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rospak57%

×Draw28%

Police National15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RospakExpected goals in this matchPolice National

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.57

Rospak

1.40

Police National

0.57

Rospak creates 146% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

0.47

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Rospak

1.60

Police National

0.47

allows per match

Rospak

0.67

Police National

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rospak+0.00on par

Police National+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rospak ↓

Police National →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Rospak or draw

85%

Rospak or Police National

72%

Draw or Police National

43%

Winning margin

Rospak wins by 2+

29%

Police National wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Rospak 1+ goals

75%

Rospak 2+ goals

41%

Rospak 3+ goals

17%

Police National 1+ goals

43%

Police National 2+ goals

11%

Police National 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Rospak (draw refunded)

79%

Police National (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rospak at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Police National away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rospak attack 1.60 + Police National defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Police National attack 0.47 + Rospak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rospak scores more

57%

level

28%

Police National scores more

15%

Rospak at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rospak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff