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Rospak vs New Edubiase — Division One League 2025

Rospak
Rospak
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
New Edubiase
New Edubiase
12/6/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rospak54%
×Draw28%
New Edubiase19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rospak
1.40
New Edubiase
0.70

Rospak creates 100% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rospak
1.60
New Edubiase
0.73

allows per match

Rospak
0.67
New Edubiase
1.20

finishing

Rospak+0.00on par
New Edubiase+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rospak ↓

New Edubiase →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rospak or draw
81%
Rospak or New Edubiase
72%
Draw or New Edubiase
46%

Winning margin

Rospak wins by 2+
27%
New Edubiase wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rospak 1+ goals
75%
Rospak 2+ goals
41%
Rospak 3+ goals
17%
New Edubiase 1+ goals
50%
New Edubiase 2+ goals
16%
New Edubiase 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rospak (draw refunded)
74%
New Edubiase (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rospak at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

New Edubiase away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rospak attack 1.60 + New Edubiase defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

New Edubiase attack 0.73 + Rospak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rospak scores more
54%
level
28%
New Edubiase scores more
19%

Rospak at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rospak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Rospak 0–0 New Edubiase

Rospak and New Edubiase drew 0-0 in Division One League on December 6, 2025.