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Rospak vs Ebony FC — Division One League 2025

Rospak
Rospak
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ebony FC
Ebony FC
2/1/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rospak54%
×Draw26%
Ebony FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rospak
1.56
Ebony FC
0.87

Rospak creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rospak
1.60
Ebony FC
1.07

allows per match

Rospak
0.67
Ebony FC
1.53

finishing

Rospak+0.00on par
Ebony FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rospak ↓

Ebony FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rospak or draw
79%
Rospak or Ebony FC
74%
Draw or Ebony FC
46%

Winning margin

Rospak wins by 2+
28%
Ebony FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rospak 1+ goals
79%
Rospak 2+ goals
46%
Rospak 3+ goals
21%
Ebony FC 1+ goals
58%
Ebony FC 2+ goals
22%
Ebony FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rospak (draw refunded)
72%
Ebony FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rospak at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Ebony FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rospak attack 1.60 + Ebony FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ebony FC attack 1.07 + Rospak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rospak scores more
54%
level
26%
Ebony FC scores more
21%

Rospak at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rospak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Rospak 3–1 Ebony FC

Rospak beat Ebony FC 3-1 in Division One League on February 1, 2026.