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Rosoman vs Pehchevo — Second League 2019

Rosoman
Rosoman
FT
2 – 2
Pehchevo
Pehchevo
9/12/2020Second LeagueSecond League · East - 3Igralište AMS vo Rosoman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rosoman24%
×Draw23%
Pehchevo53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosoman
1.20
Pehchevo
1.87

Pehchevo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 36 away

creates per match

Rosoman
1.08
Pehchevo
1.11

allows per match

Rosoman
2.62
Pehchevo
1.31

finishing

Rosoman+0.00on par
Pehchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosoman ↓

Pehchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rosoman or draw
47%
Rosoman or Pehchevo
77%
Draw or Pehchevo
76%

Winning margin

Rosoman wins by 2+
10%
Pehchevo wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Rosoman 1+ goals
70%
Rosoman 2+ goals
34%
Rosoman 3+ goals
12%
Pehchevo 1+ goals
85%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
56%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Rosoman (draw refunded)
32%
Pehchevo (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosoman at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Pehchevo away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosoman attack 1.08 + Pehchevo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Pehchevo attack 1.11 + Rosoman defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rosoman scores more
24%
level
23%
Pehchevo scores more
53%

Pehchevo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pehchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Rosoman 2–2 Pehchevo

Rosoman and Pehchevo drew 2-2 in Second League on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište AMS vo Rosoman in Rosoman.