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Roskilde vs VSK Århus — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Roskilde
Roskilde
Preview
12:00
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
9/5/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 6
Big match
45%
Roskilde
model favours
45%25%30%

Both teams score in 79% of Roskilde’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Roskilde45%
×Draw25%
VSK Århus30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roskilde
1.54
VSK Århus
1.20

Roskilde creates 28% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 29 away

creates per match

Roskilde
1.98
VSK Århus
1.14

allows per match

Roskilde
1.26
VSK Århus
1.10

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw
70%
Roskilde or VSK Århus
75%
Draw or VSK Århus
55%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+
23%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals
79%
Roskilde 2+ goals
45%
Roskilde 3+ goals
20%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
70%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
34%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)
60%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 1.98 + VSK Århus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.54

VSK Århus attack 1.14 + Roskilde defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Roskilde scores more
45%
level
25%
VSK Århus scores more
30%

Roskilde at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • VSK Århus win just 15% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 4.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Roskilde
LDWW
Århus
WWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Roskilde vs VSK Århus — Match Preview

Roskilde face VSK Århus on September 5, 2026 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.