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Roskilde vs Vendsyssel FF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Roskilde
Roskilde
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
4/11/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Roskilde42%
×Draw24%
Vendsyssel FF34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roskilde
1.61
Vendsyssel FF
1.41

Roskilde creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 16 away

creates per match

Roskilde
1.98
Vendsyssel FF
1.56

allows per match

Roskilde
1.26
Vendsyssel FF
1.25

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par
Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

Vendsyssel FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw
66%
Roskilde or Vendsyssel FF
76%
Draw or Vendsyssel FF
58%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+
21%
Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals
80%
Roskilde 2+ goals
48%
Roskilde 3+ goals
22%
Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
76%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
41%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)
56%
Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 1.98 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.56 + Roskilde defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Roskilde scores more
42%
level
24%
Vendsyssel FF scores more
34%

Roskilde at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Roskilde 1–1 Vendsyssel FF

Roskilde and Vendsyssel FF drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 11, 2026.