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Roskilde vs Jammerbugt — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Roskilde
Roskilde
CANC
11:00
Jammerbugt
Jammerbugt
5/6/20232nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 4Roskilde Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Roskilde44%
×Draw23%
Jammerbugt33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roskilde
1.74
Jammerbugt
1.48

Roskilde creates 18% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 26 away

creates per match

Roskilde
1.98
Jammerbugt
1.69

allows per match

Roskilde
1.26
Jammerbugt
1.50

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par
Jammerbugt+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

Jammerbugt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw
67%
Roskilde or Jammerbugt
77%
Draw or Jammerbugt
56%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+
23%
Jammerbugt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals
82%
Roskilde 2+ goals
52%
Roskilde 3+ goals
25%
Jammerbugt 1+ goals
77%
Jammerbugt 2+ goals
43%
Jammerbugt 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)
57%
Jammerbugt (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Jammerbugt away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 1.98 + Jammerbugt defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.74

Jammerbugt attack 1.69 + Roskilde defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Roskilde scores more
44%
level
23%
Jammerbugt scores more
33%

Roskilde at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Roskilde host Jammerbugt

May 6, 2023: Roskilde take on Jammerbugt in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Roskilde host Jammerbugt at Roskilde Idrætspark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.