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Dobrudzha vs Arda Kardzhali — Second League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
10/21/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Stadion Druzhba (Dobrich)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dobrudzha37%
×Draw29%
Arda Kardzhali34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.15
Arda Kardzhali
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.43
Arda Kardzhali
1.27

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.89
Arda Kardzhali
0.87

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
66%
Dobrudzha or Arda Kardzhali
71%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
63%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
15%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
68%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
32%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
11%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
66%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
29%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
52%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.15

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.27 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
37%
level
29%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
34%

Dobrudzha at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Dobrudzha 0–2 Arda Kardzhali

Arda Kardzhali beat Dobrudzha 2-0 in Second League on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Druzhba (Dobrich).