Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–1 Dobrudzha

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dobrudzha

K. Kitov 9'

M. Minkov 90+1'

8/11/2018

Second League · Round 3Stadion Lokomotiv (Gorna Oryahovitsa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa44%

×Draw28%

Dobrudzha28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaExpected goals in this matchDobrudzha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.98

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.30

Dobrudzha

0.98

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 101 away

1.21

creates per match

0.89

1.06

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.21

Dobrudzha

0.89

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.06

Dobrudzha

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Dobrudzha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw

72%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Dobrudzha

72%

Draw or Dobrudzha

56%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+

20%

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals

73%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals

37%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals

14%

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

62%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

26%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)

61%

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 1.21 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more

44%

level

28%

Dobrudzha scores more

28%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

K. Kitov

46'

M. Nikolov← Z. Zhilov

59'

B. Beadirov← D. Kadir

73'

S. Ivanov← I. Penev

74'

S. Andonov← Y. Kolev

80'

K. Petkov← T. Kolev

89'

Y. Yordanov← I. Karapetrov

90+1'

M. Minkov

Lokomotiv

Dobrudzha

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: T. Kiselichkov

46'▲M. Nikolov←▼Z. Zhilov

73'▲S. Ivanov←▼I. Penev

89'▲Y. Yordanov←▼I. Karapetrov

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa substitutes

NikolovIvanovYordanovRyustemovKalchevVelikovSimeonov

Manager: D. Bozhilov

59'▲B. Beadirov←▼D. Kadir

74'▲S. Andonov←▼Y. Kolev

80'▲K. Petkov←▼T. Kolev

Dobrudzha substitutes

BeadirovAndonovPetkovDonchevRadevDzhamovIvanov

Second League: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–1 Dobrudzha

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Dobrudzha drew 1-1 in Second League on August 11, 2018.

Goals: K. Kitov (9'), M. Minkov (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv (Gorna Oryahovitsa).

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–1 Dobrudzha