Dobrudzha 0–0 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Dobrudzha

FT

0 – 0

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

2/23/2019

Second League · Round 18Stadion Druzhba (Dobrich)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dobrudzha53%

×Draw25%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.90

Dobrudzha

1.57

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

0.90

Dobrudzha creates 74% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 76 away

1.43

creates per match

0.91

0.89

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.43

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

0.91

allows per match

Dobrudzha

0.89

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

78%

Dobrudzha or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

75%

Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

47%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

28%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

79%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

46%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

21%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals

59%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals

23%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

71%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 0.91 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

53%

level

25%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more

22%

Dobrudzha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff