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Ehime FC vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Ehime FC
Ehime FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
11/3/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 39Ningineer Stadium (Matsuyama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Ehime FC27%
×Draw27%
Machida Zelvia46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ehime FC
1.02
Machida Zelvia
1.42

Machida Zelvia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 127 away

creates per match

Ehime FC
0.92
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Ehime FC
1.52
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Ehime FC+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehime FC ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ehime FC or draw
54%
Ehime FC or Machida Zelvia
73%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
73%

Winning margin

Ehime FC wins by 2+
10%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ehime FC 1+ goals
64%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
27%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
8%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
76%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
41%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ehime FC (draw refunded)
37%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehime FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 124 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehime FC attack 0.92 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Ehime FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ehime FC scores more
27%
level
27%
Machida Zelvia scores more
46%

Machida Zelvia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ehime FC vs Machida Zelvia

Ehime FC beat Machida Zelvia 2-0 in J2 League on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Ningineer Stadium (Matsuyama).