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Rosengård W vs Eintracht Frankfurt W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Rosengård W
Rosengård W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Eintracht Frankfurt W
Eintracht Frankfurt W
11/14/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 1Malmö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rosengård W40%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosengård W
1.79
Eintracht Frankfurt W
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rosengård W
2.29
Eintracht Frankfurt W
1.14

allows per match

Rosengård W
2.29
Eintracht Frankfurt W
1.29

finishing

Rosengård W+0.00on par
Eintracht Frankfurt W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosengård W ↓

Eintracht Frankfurt W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rosengård W or draw
63%
Rosengård W or Eintracht Frankfurt W
78%
Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt W
60%

Winning margin

Rosengård W wins by 2+
21%
Eintracht Frankfurt W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rosengård W 1+ goals
83%
Rosengård W 2+ goals
53%
Rosengård W 3+ goals
26%
Eintracht Frankfurt W 1+ goals
82%
Eintracht Frankfurt W 2+ goals
51%
Eintracht Frankfurt W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rosengård W (draw refunded)
52%
Eintracht Frankfurt W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosengård W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

Eintracht Frankfurt W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosengård W attack 2.29 + Eintracht Frankfurt W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.79

Eintracht Frankfurt W attack 1.14 + Rosengård W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rosengård W scores more
40%
level
22%
Eintracht Frankfurt W scores more
37%

Rosengård W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rosengård W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Rosengård W 1–2 Eintracht Frankfurt W

Eintracht Frankfurt W beat Rosengård W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on November 14, 2023.

The match was played at Malmö IP in Malmö.