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Rosengård vs Torns — Svenska Cupen 2019

Rosengård
Rosengård
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torns
Torns
6/30/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundRosengårds IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rosengård24%
×Draw23%
Torns53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosengård
1.14
Torns
1.80

Torns creates 58% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rosengård
0.60
Torns
2.00

allows per match

Rosengård
1.60
Torns
1.67

finishing

Rosengård+0.00on par
Torns+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosengård ↓

Torns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rosengård or draw
47%
Rosengård or Torns
77%
Draw or Torns
76%

Winning margin

Rosengård wins by 2+
9%
Torns wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Rosengård 1+ goals
68%
Rosengård 2+ goals
32%
Rosengård 3+ goals
11%
Torns 1+ goals
83%
Torns 2+ goals
54%
Torns 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Rosengård (draw refunded)
31%
Torns (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosengård at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Torns away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosengård attack 0.60 + Torns defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Torns attack 2.00 + Rosengård defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rosengård scores more
24%
level
23%
Torns scores more
53%

Torns at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Rosengård 1–0 Torns

Rosengård beat Torns 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Rosengårds IP in Malmö.