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Rosengård vs Landskrona BoIS — Svenska Cupen 2019

Rosengård
Rosengård
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
8/4/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundRosengårds IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rosengård28%
×Draw25%
Landskrona BoIS46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosengård
1.15
Landskrona BoIS
1.55

Landskrona BoIS creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Rosengård
0.60
Landskrona BoIS
1.50

allows per match

Rosengård
1.60
Landskrona BoIS
1.69

finishing

Rosengård+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosengård ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rosengård or draw
54%
Rosengård or Landskrona BoIS
75%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
72%

Winning margin

Rosengård wins by 2+
11%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Rosengård 1+ goals
68%
Rosengård 2+ goals
32%
Rosengård 3+ goals
11%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
79%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
46%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rosengård (draw refunded)
38%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosengård at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosengård attack 0.60 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.15

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.50 + Rosengård defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rosengård scores more
28%
level
25%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
46%

Landskrona BoIS at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Rosengård 1–1 Landskrona BoIS

Rosengård and Landskrona BoIS drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 4, 2020.

The match was played at Rosengårds IP in Malmö.