Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rosengård vs Kalmar FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Rosengård
Rosengård
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
8/21/2019Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundRosengårds IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rosengård19%
×Draw23%
Kalmar FF58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosengård
0.90
Kalmar FF
1.77

Kalmar FF creates 97% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rosengård
0.60
Kalmar FF
1.93

allows per match

Rosengård
1.60
Kalmar FF
1.20

finishing

Rosengård+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosengård ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rosengård or draw
42%
Rosengård or Kalmar FF
77%
Draw or Kalmar FF
81%

Winning margin

Rosengård wins by 2+
6%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Rosengård 1+ goals
59%
Rosengård 2+ goals
23%
Rosengård 3+ goals
6%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
83%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
53%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Rosengård (draw refunded)
25%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosengård at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosengård attack 0.60 + Kalmar FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.90

Kalmar FF attack 1.93 + Rosengård defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rosengård scores more
19%
level
23%
Kalmar FF scores more
58%

Kalmar FF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Rosengård 1–2 Kalmar FF

Kalmar FF beat Rosengård 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 21, 2019.

The match was played at Rosengårds IP in Malmö.