Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rosengård vs IFK Malmö — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Rosengård
Rosengård
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
IFK Malmö
IFK Malmö
5/27/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 9Rosengårds IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rosengård59%
×Draw21%
IFK Malmö20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosengård
2.08
IFK Malmö
1.14

Rosengård creates 82% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rosengård
2.15
IFK Malmö
1.23

allows per match

Rosengård
1.05
IFK Malmö
2.00

finishing

Rosengård+0.00on par
IFK Malmö+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosengård ↓

IFK Malmö →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rosengård or draw
80%
Rosengård or IFK Malmö
79%
Draw or IFK Malmö
41%

Winning margin

Rosengård wins by 2+
36%
IFK Malmö wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rosengård 1+ goals
87%
Rosengård 2+ goals
61%
Rosengård 3+ goals
34%
IFK Malmö 1+ goals
68%
IFK Malmö 2+ goals
32%
IFK Malmö 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rosengård (draw refunded)
74%
IFK Malmö (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosengård at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.05 · 41 matches

IFK Malmö away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosengård attack 2.15 + IFK Malmö defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

IFK Malmö attack 1.23 + Rosengård defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rosengård scores more
59%
level
21%
IFK Malmö scores more
20%

Rosengård at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rosengård will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Rosengård 5–2 IFK Malmö

Rosengård beat IFK Malmö 5-2 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Rosengårds IP in Malmö.