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Rosenborg W vs Stabæk W — Toppserien 2021

Rosenborg W
Rosenborg W
Preview
11:00
Stabæk W
Stabæk W
9/19/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 16Koteng Arena
Big match
60%
Rosenborg W
model favours
60%22%18%

Rosenborg W are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rosenborg W60%
×Draw22%
Stabæk W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg W
1.86
Stabæk W
0.91

Rosenborg W creates 104% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

creates per match

Rosenborg W
2.13
Stabæk W
1.16

allows per match

Rosenborg W
0.65
Stabæk W
1.59

finishing

Rosenborg W+0.00on par
Stabæk W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg W ↓

Stabæk W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rosenborg W or draw
82%
Rosenborg W or Stabæk W
78%
Draw or Stabæk W
40%

Winning margin

Rosenborg W wins by 2+
35%
Stabæk W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rosenborg W 1+ goals
84%
Rosenborg W 2+ goals
55%
Rosenborg W 3+ goals
28%
Stabæk W 1+ goals
60%
Stabæk W 2+ goals
23%
Stabæk W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)
77%
Stabæk W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg W at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 69 matches

Stabæk W away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg W attack 2.13 + Stabæk W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.86

Stabæk W attack 1.16 + Rosenborg W defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rosenborg W scores more
60%
level
22%
Stabæk W scores more
18%

Rosenborg W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rosenborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rosenborg W have scored in 11 games running
  • Rosenborg W score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Rosenborg W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Stabæk W score first in 64% of matches
  • Stabæk W win just 22% against the top half (vs 61% against the bottom)
  • Both teams score in 73% of Rosenborg W’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLWW
W
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rosenborg W face Stabæk W (Toppserien)

Toppserien returns with Rosenborg W hosting Stabæk W. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rosenborg W host Stabæk W at Koteng Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.