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Rosenborg W vs Stabæk W — Toppserien 2021

Rosenborg W
Rosenborg W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stabæk W
Stabæk W
5/10/2025ToppserienToppserien · Round 9Koteng Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rosenborg W60%
×Draw22%
Stabæk W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg W
1.86
Stabæk W
0.91

Rosenborg W creates 104% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

creates per match

Rosenborg W
2.13
Stabæk W
1.16

allows per match

Rosenborg W
0.65
Stabæk W
1.59

finishing

Rosenborg W+0.00on par
Stabæk W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg W ↓

Stabæk W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rosenborg W or draw
82%
Rosenborg W or Stabæk W
78%
Draw or Stabæk W
40%

Winning margin

Rosenborg W wins by 2+
35%
Stabæk W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rosenborg W 1+ goals
84%
Rosenborg W 2+ goals
55%
Rosenborg W 3+ goals
28%
Stabæk W 1+ goals
60%
Stabæk W 2+ goals
23%
Stabæk W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)
77%
Stabæk W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg W at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 69 matches

Stabæk W away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg W attack 2.13 + Stabæk W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.86

Stabæk W attack 1.16 + Rosenborg W defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rosenborg W scores more
60%
level
22%
Stabæk W scores more
18%

Rosenborg W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rosenborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toppserien: Rosenborg W 3–0 Stabæk W

Rosenborg W beat Stabæk W 3-0 in Toppserien on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Koteng Arena in Trondheim.