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Rosenborg W vs Lyn W — Toppserien 2021

Rosenborg W
Rosenborg W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lyn W
Lyn W
10/5/2024ToppserienToppserien · Round 22Koteng Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Rosenborg W65%
×Draw21%
Lyn W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg W
1.96
Lyn W
0.76

Rosenborg W creates 158% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 65 away

creates per match

Rosenborg W
2.13
Lyn W
0.86

allows per match

Rosenborg W
0.65
Lyn W
1.80

finishing

Rosenborg W+0.00on par
Lyn W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg W ↓

Lyn W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rosenborg W or draw
86%
Rosenborg W or Lyn W
79%
Draw or Lyn W
35%

Winning margin

Rosenborg W wins by 2+
40%
Lyn W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rosenborg W 1+ goals
86%
Rosenborg W 2+ goals
58%
Rosenborg W 3+ goals
31%
Lyn W 1+ goals
53%
Lyn W 2+ goals
18%
Lyn W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)
83%
Lyn W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg W at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 69 matches

Lyn W away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.80 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg W attack 2.13 + Lyn W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.96

Lyn W attack 0.86 + Rosenborg W defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rosenborg W scores more
65%
level
21%
Lyn W scores more
14%

Rosenborg W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rosenborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toppserien: Rosenborg W 0–2 Lyn W

Lyn W beat Rosenborg W 2-0 in Toppserien on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Koteng Arena in Trondheim.