Rosenborg W 4–1 LSK Kvinner W: Result & Stats

Rosenborg W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

LSK Kvinner W

8/13/2025

Toppserien · Round 20Koteng Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Rosenborg W51%

×Draw24%

LSK Kvinner W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosenborg WExpected goals in this matchLSK Kvinner W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.15

Rosenborg W

1.73

LSK Kvinner W

1.15

Rosenborg W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 65 away

2.13

creates per match

1.65

0.65

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Rosenborg W

2.13

LSK Kvinner W

1.65

allows per match

Rosenborg W

0.65

LSK Kvinner W

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg W+0.00on par

LSK Kvinner W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg W ↓

LSK Kvinner W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rosenborg W or draw

75%

Rosenborg W or LSK Kvinner W

76%

Draw or LSK Kvinner W

49%

Winning margin

Rosenborg W wins by 2+

28%

LSK Kvinner W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rosenborg W 1+ goals

82%

Rosenborg W 2+ goals

52%

Rosenborg W 3+ goals

25%

LSK Kvinner W 1+ goals

68%

LSK Kvinner W 2+ goals

32%

LSK Kvinner W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)

67%

LSK Kvinner W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg W at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 69 matches

LSK Kvinner W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg W attack 2.13 + LSK Kvinner W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.73

LSK Kvinner W attack 1.65 + Rosenborg W defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rosenborg W scores more

51%

level

24%

LSK Kvinner W scores more

25%

Rosenborg W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rosenborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff