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Rosenborg vs Red Bull Salzburg — UEFA Europa League 2026

Rosenborg
Rosenborg
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
11/8/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 4Lerkendal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rosenborg31%
×Draw22%
Red Bull Salzburg47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg
1.56
Red Bull Salzburg
1.95

Red Bull Salzburg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Rosenborg
1.11
Red Bull Salzburg
1.57

allows per match

Rosenborg
2.33
Red Bull Salzburg
2.00

finishing

Rosenborg+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw
53%
Rosenborg or Red Bull Salzburg
78%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
69%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+
15%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals
79%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
46%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
21%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
86%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
58%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)
40%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.11 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.57 + Rosenborg defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rosenborg scores more
31%
level
22%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
47%

Red Bull Salzburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Rosenborg 2–5 Red Bull Salzburg

Red Bull Salzburg beat Rosenborg 5-2 in UEFA Europa League on November 8, 2018.

The match was played at Lerkendal in Trondheim.