Rosenborg 1–1 Crusaders FC: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Crusaders FC

L. Cornic 108'

Í. Þorvaldsson 102'

J. Nelson 33'

P. Heatley 105'

P. Lowry 45'

8/3/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundLerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rosenborg71%

×Draw17%

Crusaders FC12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchCrusaders FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

0.88

Rosenborg

2.43

Crusaders FC

0.88

Rosenborg creates 176% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.86

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Rosenborg

2.86

Crusaders FC

0.75

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.00

Crusaders FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg+0.00on par

Crusaders FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Crusaders FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

88%

Rosenborg or Crusaders FC

83%

Draw or Crusaders FC

29%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

48%

Crusaders FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

91%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

69%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

43%

Crusaders FC 1+ goals

59%

Crusaders FC 2+ goals

22%

Crusaders FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

86%

Crusaders FC (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Crusaders FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 2.86 + Crusaders FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Crusaders FC attack 0.75 + Rosenborg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Rosenborg scores more

71%

level

17%

Crusaders FC scores more

12%

Rosenborg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

J. Nelson

45'

P. Lowry

46'

A. Lecky← J. Winchester

57'

Adrian Nilsen Pereira

57'

60'

65'

72'

79'

82'

Í. Þorvaldsson← E. Tagseth

82'

L. Anderson← R. Clarke

90+4'

S. Väänänen← O. Sæter

101'

P. Skjelbred← S. Nypan

102'

Í. Þorvaldsson

105+3'

Paul Heatley

105+3'

Paul Heatley

105'

M. Holte← Í. Þorvaldsson

105'

105'

108'

110'

110'

J. Teelan← B. Kennedy

116'

118'

120+3'

120+2'

120'

Shots

Statistics

RosenborgCrusaders

Overview

23Total Shots10

17Corners9

15Fouls20

Shots

23Total Shots10

11On Target4

7Off Target5

5Blocked1

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls20

2Yellow Cards9

UEFA Europa Conference League: Rosenborg 1–1 Crusaders FC

Rosenborg and Crusaders FC drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 3, 2023.

Goals: J. Nelson (33'), P. Lowry (45'), Í. Þorvaldsson (102'), P. Heatley (105'), L. Cornic (108').

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs Crusaders FC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

UEFA Europa Conference League: Rosenborg 1–1 Crusaders FC