Rosenborg 2–1 Aalesund: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aalesund

C. Tengstedt 90+2'

O. Sæter 40' (pen)

S. Nordli 30'

8/21/2022

Eliteserien · Round 19Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Rosenborg58%

×Draw21%

Aalesund22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.21

Rosenborg

2.10

Aalesund

1.21

Rosenborg creates 74% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 11 away

1.75

creates per match

1.26

1.15

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.75

Aalesund

1.26

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.15

Aalesund

2.46

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.03on par

Aalesund-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

78%

Rosenborg or Aalesund

79%

Draw or Aalesund

42%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

35%

Aalesund wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

88%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

62%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

35%

Aalesund 1+ goals

70%

Aalesund 2+ goals

34%

Aalesund 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

73%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 29 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.46 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.75 + Aalesund defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.10

Aalesund attack 1.26 + Rosenborg defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rosenborg scores more

58%

level

21%

Aalesund scores more

22%

Rosenborg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Holse

Rosenborg · M

8.2

Match Events

30'

S. Nordli↳ D. Čanađija

40'

O. SæterPenalty

46'

R. Giampaoli← O. Skarsem

46'

E. Tagseth← A. Pereira

48'

Besim Šerbečić

50'

Victor Jensen

62'

K. Ingason← T. Børkeeiet

72'

F. Haugen← D. Čanađija

72'

E. Moses← K. Ødemarksbakken

77'

L. Cornic← S. Rogers

79'

T. Kallevåg← S. Nordli

82'

N. Holm← O. Sæter

85'

Fredrik Haugen

90+3'

E. Segberg← Nenass

90+2'

C. Tengstedt↳ E. Reitan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgAalesund

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots18

6Corners5

11Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots18

4On Target4

6Off Target8

6Blocked6

12Inside Box14

4Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

489Total Passes434

394Accurate Passes325

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1