Rosenborg II 5–2 Steinkjer: Result & Stats

Rosenborg II

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Steinkjer

8/29/2022

3. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 18SalMar Banen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rosenborg II66%

×Draw16%

Steinkjer18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosenborg IIExpected goals in this matchSteinkjer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

1.71

Rosenborg II

3.25

Steinkjer

1.71

Rosenborg II creates 90% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

2.92

creates per match

1.50

1.92

allows per match

3.58

creates per match

Rosenborg II

2.92

Steinkjer

1.50

allows per match

Rosenborg II

1.92

Steinkjer

3.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg II+0.00on par

Steinkjer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg II ↓

Steinkjer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Rosenborg II or draw

82%

Rosenborg II or Steinkjer

84%

Draw or Steinkjer

34%

Winning margin

Rosenborg II wins by 2+

47%

Steinkjer wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rosenborg II 1+ goals

96%

Rosenborg II 2+ goals

83%

Rosenborg II 3+ goals

61%

Steinkjer 1+ goals

82%

Steinkjer 2+ goals

51%

Steinkjer 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg II (draw refunded)

79%

Steinkjer (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg II at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Steinkjer away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg II attack 2.92 + Steinkjer defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 3.25

Steinkjer attack 1.50 + Rosenborg II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rosenborg II scores more

66%

level

16%

Steinkjer scores more

18%

Rosenborg II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rosenborg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff