Rosenborg II 1–0 Kristiansund II: Result & Stats

Rosenborg II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kristiansund II

3/31/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 1SalMar Banen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rosenborg II69%

×Draw17%

Kristiansund II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosenborg IIExpected goals in this matchKristiansund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.10

Rosenborg II

2.57

Kristiansund II

1.10

Rosenborg II creates 134% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

2.68

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Rosenborg II

2.68

Kristiansund II

1.00

allows per match

Rosenborg II

1.21

Kristiansund II

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg II+0.00on par

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg II ↓

Kristiansund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Rosenborg II or draw

86%

Rosenborg II or Kristiansund II

83%

Draw or Kristiansund II

31%

Winning margin

Rosenborg II wins by 2+

47%

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rosenborg II 1+ goals

92%

Rosenborg II 2+ goals

72%

Rosenborg II 3+ goals

47%

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

67%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

30%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg II (draw refunded)

83%

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg II at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg II attack 2.68 + Kristiansund II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.57

Kristiansund II attack 1.00 + Rosenborg II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rosenborg II scores more

69%

level

17%

Kristiansund II scores more

14%

Rosenborg II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rosenborg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff