Rosenborg II 7–0 Bodø / Glimt II: Result & Stats

Rosenborg II

FT

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bodø / Glimt II

5/15/2022

3. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 6SalMar Banen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rosenborg II64%

×Draw17%

Bodø / Glimt II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosenborg IIExpected goals in this matchBodø / Glimt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

1.59

Rosenborg II

2.90

Bodø / Glimt II

1.59

Rosenborg II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

2.92

creates per match

1.27

1.92

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Rosenborg II

2.92

Bodø / Glimt II

1.27

allows per match

Rosenborg II

1.92

Bodø / Glimt II

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg II+0.00on par

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg II ↓

Bodø / Glimt II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Rosenborg II or draw

81%

Rosenborg II or Bodø / Glimt II

83%

Draw or Bodø / Glimt II

36%

Winning margin

Rosenborg II wins by 2+

44%

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rosenborg II 1+ goals

94%

Rosenborg II 2+ goals

78%

Rosenborg II 3+ goals

54%

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals

80%

Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals

47%

Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg II (draw refunded)

77%

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg II at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Bodø / Glimt II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg II attack 2.92 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.90

Bodø / Glimt II attack 1.27 + Rosenborg II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Rosenborg II scores more

64%

level

17%

Bodø / Glimt II scores more

19%

Rosenborg II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Rosenborg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff