Rosenborg II 5–0 Aalesund II: Result & Stats

Rosenborg II

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aalesund II

M. Sylte 90+1'

T. K. Holden 71'

M. Soboczynski 55', 30'

M. Qvigstad 47'

4/24/2026

3. Division - Girone 2 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rosenborg II60%

×Draw19%

Aalesund II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosenborg IIExpected goals in this matchAalesund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.30

Rosenborg II

2.33

Aalesund II

1.30

Rosenborg II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

2.68

creates per match

1.39

1.21

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Rosenborg II

2.68

Aalesund II

1.39

allows per match

Rosenborg II

1.21

Aalesund II

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg II+0.00on par

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg II ↓

Aalesund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Rosenborg II or draw

79%

Rosenborg II or Aalesund II

81%

Draw or Aalesund II

40%

Winning margin

Rosenborg II wins by 2+

38%

Aalesund II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rosenborg II 1+ goals

90%

Rosenborg II 2+ goals

67%

Rosenborg II 3+ goals

41%

Aalesund II 1+ goals

73%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

37%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg II (draw refunded)

75%

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg II at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg II attack 2.68 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.33

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Rosenborg II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rosenborg II scores more

60%

level

19%

Aalesund II scores more

21%

Rosenborg II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rosenborg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

47'

55'

71'

90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff