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Rosario vs Puntarenas FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Rosario
Rosario
FT
2 – 2
Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
1/25/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 4Estadio Municipal de Naranjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rosario32%
×Draw29%
Puntarenas FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario
1.04
Puntarenas FC
1.18

Puntarenas FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 64 away

creates per match

Rosario
1.00
Puntarenas FC
1.36

allows per match

Rosario
1.00
Puntarenas FC
1.09

finishing

Rosario+0.00on par
Puntarenas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario ↓

Puntarenas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rosario or draw
61%
Rosario or Puntarenas FC
71%
Draw or Puntarenas FC
68%

Winning margin

Rosario wins by 2+
12%
Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rosario 1+ goals
65%
Rosario 2+ goals
28%
Rosario 3+ goals
9%
Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
69%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
33%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rosario (draw refunded)
45%
Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Puntarenas FC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario attack 1.00 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Puntarenas FC attack 1.36 + Rosario defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rosario scores more
32%
level
29%
Puntarenas FC scores more
39%

Puntarenas FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Puntarenas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rosario vs Puntarenas FC

Rosario and Puntarenas FC drew 2-2 in Liga de Ascenso on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Naranjo in Naranjo.