Rosario 1–1 AD Santa Rosa: Result & Stats

Rosario

FT

1 – 1

AD Santa Rosa

2/8/2020

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 6Estadio Municipal de Naranjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rosario43%

×Draw29%

AD Santa Rosa29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosarioExpected goals in this matchAD Santa Rosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.97

Rosario

1.26

AD Santa Rosa

0.97

Rosario creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 42 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Rosario

1.00

AD Santa Rosa

0.95

allows per match

Rosario

1.00

AD Santa Rosa

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosario+0.00on par

AD Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario ↓

AD Santa Rosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rosario or draw

71%

Rosario or AD Santa Rosa

71%

Draw or AD Santa Rosa

57%

Winning margin

Rosario wins by 2+

19%

AD Santa Rosa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rosario 1+ goals

72%

Rosario 2+ goals

36%

Rosario 3+ goals

13%

AD Santa Rosa 1+ goals

62%

AD Santa Rosa 2+ goals

25%

AD Santa Rosa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rosario (draw refunded)

60%

AD Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

AD Santa Rosa away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario attack 1.00 + AD Santa Rosa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

AD Santa Rosa attack 0.95 + Rosario defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rosario scores more

43%

level

29%

AD Santa Rosa scores more

29%

Rosario at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff