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Rosario vs AD Carmelita — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Rosario
Rosario
FT
0 – 0
AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
1/11/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 1Estadio Municipal de Naranjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rosario39%
×Draw27%
AD Carmelita34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario
1.27
AD Carmelita
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 104 away

creates per match

Rosario
1.00
AD Carmelita
1.31

allows per match

Rosario
1.00
AD Carmelita
1.54

finishing

Rosario+0.00on par
AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario ↓

AD Carmelita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rosario or draw
66%
Rosario or AD Carmelita
73%
Draw or AD Carmelita
61%

Winning margin

Rosario wins by 2+
17%
AD Carmelita wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rosario 1+ goals
72%
Rosario 2+ goals
36%
Rosario 3+ goals
14%
AD Carmelita 1+ goals
69%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
32%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rosario (draw refunded)
54%
AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

AD Carmelita away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario attack 1.00 + AD Carmelita defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

AD Carmelita attack 1.31 + Rosario defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rosario scores more
39%
level
27%
AD Carmelita scores more
34%

Rosario at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rosario vs AD Carmelita

Rosario and AD Carmelita drew 0-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Naranjo in Naranjo.