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Rosario Central vs Gimnasia Jujuy — Primera Nacional 2026

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnasia Jujuy
Gimnasia Jujuy
11/17/2012Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 15Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rosario Central61%
×Draw28%
Gimnasia Jujuy11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.33
Gimnasia Jujuy
0.38

Rosario Central creates 250% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 129 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.33
Gimnasia Jujuy
0.75

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.00
Gimnasia Jujuy
1.33

finishing

Rosario Central+0.00on par
Gimnasia Jujuy+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Gimnasia Jujuy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–17%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
89%
Rosario Central or Gimnasia Jujuy
72%
Draw or Gimnasia Jujuy
39%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
30%
Gimnasia Jujuy wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
74%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
38%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
15%
Gimnasia Jujuy 1+ goals
32%
Gimnasia Jujuy 2+ goals
6%
Gimnasia Jujuy 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
85%
Gimnasia Jujuy (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Gimnasia Jujuy away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.33 + Gimnasia Jujuy defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gimnasia Jujuy attack 0.75 + Rosario Central defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rosario Central scores more
61%
level
28%
Gimnasia Jujuy scores more
11%

Rosario Central at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Gimnasia Jujuy

Rosario Central beat Gimnasia Jujuy 2-0 in Primera Nacional on November 17, 2012.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre.