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Rosario Central vs 12 de Octubre — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
5/27/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rosario Central49%
×Draw33%
12 de Octubre17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.09
12 de Octubre
0.52

Rosario Central creates 110% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.86
12 de Octubre
0.33

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.71
12 de Octubre
0.33

finishing

Rosario Central+0.00on par
12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

12 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
83%
Rosario Central or 12 de Octubre
67%
Draw or 12 de Octubre
51%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
21%
12 de Octubre wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
66%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
30%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
10%
12 de Octubre 1+ goals
41%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
10%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
74%
12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.86 + 12 de Octubre defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

12 de Octubre attack 0.33 + Rosario Central defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rosario Central scores more
49%
level
33%
12 de Octubre scores more
17%

Rosario Central at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rosario Central 0 – 0 12 de Octubre

Rosario Central and 12 de Octubre drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Florencio Solá in Lomas de Zamora, Provincia de Buenos Aires.