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Rosario Central Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. — Reserve League 2022

Rosario Central Res.
Rosario Central Res.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Tucumán Res.
Atlético Tucumán Res.
3/12/2025Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Rosario Central Res.54%
×Draw24%
Atlético Tucumán Res.22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central Res.
1.70
Atlético Tucumán Res.
0.99

Rosario Central Res. creates 72% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

creates per match

Rosario Central Res.
1.60
Atlético Tucumán Res.
0.97

allows per match

Rosario Central Res.
1.02
Atlético Tucumán Res.
1.79

finishing

Rosario Central Res.+0.00on par
Atlético Tucumán Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central Res. ↓

Atlético Tucumán Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rosario Central Res. or draw
78%
Rosario Central Res. or Atlético Tucumán Res.
76%
Draw or Atlético Tucumán Res.
46%

Winning margin

Rosario Central Res. wins by 2+
30%
Atlético Tucumán Res. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rosario Central Res. 1+ goals
82%
Rosario Central Res. 2+ goals
51%
Rosario Central Res. 3+ goals
24%
Atlético Tucumán Res. 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Tucumán Res. 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Tucumán Res. 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central Res. (draw refunded)
71%
Atlético Tucumán Res. (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central Res. at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.02 · 62 matches

Atlético Tucumán Res. away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central Res. attack 1.60 + Atlético Tucumán Res. defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Atlético Tucumán Res. attack 0.97 + Rosario Central Res. defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rosario Central Res. scores more
54%
level
24%
Atlético Tucumán Res. scores more
22%

Rosario Central Res. at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rosario Central Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Rosario Central Res. 2–0 Atlético Tucumán Res.

Rosario Central Res. beat Atlético Tucumán Res. 2-0 in Reserve League on March 12, 2025.