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RoPS W vs ONS W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

RoPS W
RoPS W
FT
1 – 4
ONS W
ONS W
9/24/2025Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Relegation Round - 6Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

RoPS W36%
×Draw21%
ONS W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RoPS W
1.91
ONS W
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 29 away

creates per match

RoPS W
1.20
ONS W
1.17

allows per match

RoPS W
3.00
ONS W
2.62

finishing

RoPS W+0.00on par
ONS W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RoPS W ↓

ONS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

RoPS W or draw
57%
RoPS W or ONS W
79%
Draw or ONS W
64%

Winning margin

RoPS W wins by 2+
19%
ONS W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

RoPS W 1+ goals
85%
RoPS W 2+ goals
57%
RoPS W 3+ goals
30%
ONS W 1+ goals
87%
ONS W 2+ goals
61%
ONS W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

RoPS W (draw refunded)
46%
ONS W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RoPS W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

ONS W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RoPS W attack 1.20 + ONS W defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.91

ONS W attack 1.17 + RoPS W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

RoPS W scores more
36%
level
21%
ONS W scores more
43%

ONS W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ONS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kansallinen Liiga: RoPS W 1–4 ONS W

ONS W beat RoPS W 4-1 in Kansallinen Liiga on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä in Rovaniemi.