Rops 2–1 VPS: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

Rops

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

VPS

A. Kokko 68'

Y. Rahimi 60' (pen)

S. Morrissey 83'

9/28/2019

Veikkausliiga · Relegation Round - 3Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä (Rovaniemi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Rops36%

×Draw27%

VPS37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RopsExpected goals in this matchVPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.27

Rops

1.24

VPS

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 98 away

1.10

creates per match

1.42

1.13

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Rops

1.10

VPS

1.42

allows per match

Rops

1.13

VPS

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rops+0.00on par

VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

VPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rops or draw

63%

Rops or VPS

73%

Draw or VPS

64%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+

15%

VPS wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals

71%

Rops 2+ goals

35%

Rops 3+ goals

13%

VPS 1+ goals

72%

VPS 2+ goals

36%

VPS 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)

49%

VPS (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

VPS away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 1.10 + VPS defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

VPS attack 1.42 + Rops defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rops scores more

36%

level

27%

VPS scores more

37%

VPS at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

H. Holmgren

53'

V. Lehtonen← J. Voutilainen

57'

S. Strandvall

59'

E. Muinonen← K. Kouassivi-Benissan

60'

Y. RahimiPenalty

61'

M. Kompalla

64'

S. Alanko← V. Lehtonen

68'

A. Kokko

72'

S. Morrissey← M. Sarr

74'

L. Lingman

76'

J. Lahde

82'

N. Jokelainen← A. Kokko

83'

S. Morrissey

90'

S. Alanko

Rops

VPS

1

20

14

28

8

9

13

6

▼

Voutilain

11

Ebwelle

17

Stavrotha

25

▼

25

3

88

6

20

15

▼

4

33

10

11

⚽

▼

Kokko

7

⚽

Rahimi

Manager: P. Tuutti

59'▲E. Muinonen←▼K. Kouassivi-Benissan

82'▲N. Jokelainen←▼A. Kokko

Rops substitutes

14Muinonen23Jokelainen2Ölander12Rantala24Jäntti27Olabisi34Kada

Manager: C. Sund

53'▲V. Lehtonen←▼J. Voutilainen

64'▲S. Alanko←▼V. Lehtonen

72'▲S. Morrissey←▼M. Sarr

VPS substitutes

27Lehtonen7Alanko10Morrissey15Ojamaa16Laatikainen18Kujanpää30Voskonyan

Veikkausliiga: Rops 2–1 VPS

Rops beat VPS 2-1 in Veikkausliiga on September 28, 2019.

Goals: Y. Rahimi (60' pen), A. Kokko (68'), S. Morrissey (83').

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä (Rovaniemi).

Rops vs VPS — Veikkausliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Veikkausliiga: Rops 2–1 VPS